N°1: Capital humain au Maroc: Evaluation fondée sur le revenu de la vie entière 

BENAZZI Sara, EL OTHMANI Jawad and SAIDI Abdessamad

summary: This working paper provides a measure of the human capital stock in Morocco in 1999 and 2012, by adopting the lifetime income approach (Jorgenson and Fraumeni, 1989, 1992a, 1992b). The results show that during the period 1999-2012, the stock of human capital rose at an annual average rate of 3% in real terms and remains the leading source of wealth in Morocco. This evolution is due, on the one hand, to the increase in the number of individuals in the working-age population and, on the other hand, to the relative improvement of their education level. However, the quality of the education and training system and the low employment rate remain the key challenges to be tackled in order to further increase human capital and maintain its position as the main source of wealth in Morocco. Finally, the estimations carried so far in this study have been enhanced by sensitivity analysis with respect to the data about salaries and the assumptions made about expected future income growth and its discount rate.

JEL codes : J24, I30, C55.

Keywords : Capital humain, Richesse globale, Approche du revenu de la vie entière.


N°2 : Analyse de la transmission de la politique monétaire vers les taux souverains


summary : The objective of this study is to evaluate the monetary policy transmission along the sovereign bond yield curve (2, 5 and 10 years) in Morocco through the estimation of several SVAR models between 2007-2017. Two different approaches for identifying structural shocks were used: (1) recursive factorization of Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans (1999) and (2) non-recursive identification of Sims-Zha (2006). The variance decomposition suggests that macroeconomic impulses account for the vast preponderance of 5-year and 10-year variability compared to 2-year government bills. Similarly, the impulse response functions show that tighter monetary policy makes the yield curve steeper, meaning that the long-end of the yield curve increases more than the short-end. Moreover, the results suggest that an important part of 5 and 10 years sovereign bond reaction is explained by the « risk premium » component while the 2-year treasury bills are driven by monetary policy shocks.

JEL codes :  E43, E52, E58, G12.

Keywords  : Yield curve, risk premium, variance decomposition, monetary policy shocks.


N°3 : Séries de pièces et billets socialement optimales: les coûts de production comptent-ils réellement ?


summary : By adding denominations to their coin and banknote series central banks can increase the efficiency of cash payments. In practice, however, they opt for a denominational structure with a relatively low density. The literature holds that this is because of the production costs involved. Bouhdaoui and Van Hove (2017) test this proposition by introducing a per-denomination fixed cost into the matching model of Lee et al. (2005) and parameterize the model with data on the production of US dollar banknotes. This paper aims to test this assumption using production figures of Moroccan banknotes. The results confirm that central banks could increase the density of their currency systems beyond the observed level without the efficiency gains for transactors being dwarfed by  the additional production costs for the central bank itself. Our finding shows that the explanation for the low density rather lies with computational and habituation costs incurred by consumers and merchants - and anticipated by central banks - that are not yet in any of the extant models.

JEL codes ::  E40, E42, E47.

Keywords : Denominational structure, Banknotes, Central bank, Social cost, Search model.

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