2025

Policy Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Dynamics : A New Index for Morocco

Oussama Houari

Abstract: In the absence of a dedicated Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Morocco, we construct a novel measure using natural language processing techniques applied to seven major Moroccan newspapers. The resulting index captures fluctuations in uncertainty related to the political context, economic downturns, and extreme climate events. Employing Structural Vector AutoRegression (SVAR) models, we assess the impact of both world and domestic uncertainty shocks on Morocco’s macroeconomic dynamics. Our findings show that the EPU index is countercyclical and significantly influences the economy through several transmission channels. In particular, heightened uncertainty worsens business cycle indicators, amplifies household pessimism, and promotes cash hoarding over bank savings. This research enriches the existing literature by uncovering the distinctive features of policy uncertainty in a small open emerging economy and underscores its implications for economic policy decisionmaking and public policy evaluation.

JEL Classification: D80, C32; E22, E32; E66.

Keywords: Uncertainty shocks; Economic policy; Transmission mechanisms; SVAR

Monetary Policy and Real Estate Asset Prices in Morocco

Hasnae Hammou Ou Ali

Abstract: This study investigates the role of housing prices in the Moroccan economy and their response to monetary policy shocks. Using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we explore the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy through various channels, including interest rates, credit availability, and consumer confidence. The analysis uses a comprehensive dataset spanning the period from 2006 to 2024, focusing on macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy instruments, and the Real Estate Asset Price Index (REAPI). Empirical findings reveal that contractionary monetary policy leads to a delayed decline in housing prices, which may reflect structural rigidities in Morocco's real estate market. This study contributes to understanding the interplay between monetary policy and asset markets in emerging economies, providing insights for policymakers seeking to balance growth and stability objectives.

JEL Classification: E52, E40, R32, C32. 

Keywords: Real estate prices, Monetary policy, Interest rate, transmission channels

Health Insurance and Household Savings

Sara Loukili, Patti Fisher

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between health insurance coverage and household saving behavior in Morocco using nationally representative data from the household consumption and expenditure survey. The analysis reveals that access to health insurance is associated with reduced household savings, particularly among vulnerable groups including low-income families, rural households, and female-headed households. These findings suggest that health insurance may crowd-out precautionary savings, which may be of interest in the context of ongoing social protection and financial inclusion discussions. This research contributes to understanding how expanding health coverage influences household financial decision-making in the context of a developing country such as Morocco and opens many avenues for future research.

JEL Classification: D12, D14, D91, E21, I13.

Keywords: Household savings, Health insurance, Morocco, Social protection, AMO.